Marin Forum

It has been over a month since Iranians took to the streets in protest over election results. It seemed that the violent crack down on the part of the government was going to contain public displays of defiance. The opposition never went away, and there were constant reports of small pockets of street protests and other forms of defiance. However, today the opposition mounted its largest display of defiance since the days immediately following the election.
Rafsanjani gave the Friday sermon this week and thousands of opposition supporters attended and took to the streets. The opposition is not going away and it can still mount a considerable street presence.
At this point the government of Iran should be extremely afraid for the future of its power and influence. As long as they ignore the demands of the opposition, there will always be a challenge to the legitimacy of the government. Force has not been enough to crush the opposition. Meanwhile, the spontaneous and decentralized nature of the opposition makes it extremely hard to thwart. However, if the government gives into the demands of the opposition it may potentially undermine its position. As we have seen in past government-opposition interactions when the government begins to reform following a strong arm period the government elite tends to lose control and finds itself either out of power or extremely marginalized and limited. In the case of Iran, the government put itself in a position where it can’t implement reforms or accept opposition demands without reversing earlier decisions and statements. These reversals disrupt continuity and bring instability.

The last few weeks have turned into a “wait and see” approach by both the government and opposition. The government hopes to outlast the opposition and it certainly has the tools to do so (support of the security apparatus, considerable mass support, and a fair amount of international recognition).  But the opposition has its own strengths that are keeping it alive. Today was a victory for the opposition because it showed its staying power. Rafsanjani effectively publicly endorsed the opposition, and the opposition made a strong showing on the streets. Furthermore, the opposition has strong allies in the Iranian elite and clerical establishment.

Both sides have staying power and are entrenched into their positions. Neither side seems ready to give into the other’s demands. A month later and the opposition is still going strong which suggests that this conflict will not be going away any time soon.

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