Marin Forum

I will be updated this entry to the best of my ability with the latest aggregated news coming out of Iran. The Lede from the New York Times has been an incredible source of aggregated news and I will draw heavily on that. Twitter, however, has become the best source for information. I am currently monitoring the Twitter feeds (#iranelection). It’s hard to get completely reliable information as rumors are common and the Iranian government is spreading false information. Also the foreign press has been banned from covering the street protests. I will update this entry continuously so just refresh the page to get updates and all times are Pacific.

9:43pm There is no official word that Mousavi has called for a general strike on Tuesday. There is no formal call on his websites but the call is rapidly spreading around (at least on Twitter). This disorganization is really hurting efforts. We’ll see if any strikes materialize. Check back in with us tomorrow morning.

1:09pm Mousavi has called for a full national strike across Iran tomorrow.

1:05pm There are reports of continued clashes between protesters and security forces into the night. In Tehran people are continuing to chant “allahu akbhar” from their balconies but there are unconfirmed reports of Basij targeting people on their balconies.

11:38am The BBC reports the following about Neda from an interview with her fiance:

She had been sitting with her music teacher in a car, stuck in traffic, when she decided to get out because of the heat. “She got out of the car for just for a few minutes [and] that’s when she was shot dead,” said Kaspin Makan.

Mr Makan quoted eyewitnesses as saying she appeared to have been targeted deliberately by “paramilitaries in civilian clothing.”

He added that officials had prevented mourners holding a memorial service at a mosque on Monday. “The authorities are aware that everybody in Iran and throughout the whole world knows about her story,” he told the BBC. “They were afraid that lots of people could turn up.”

11:28am Hospital sources report that as many as 47 people have been killed by government forces.

11:14am Here is another video from today. You can see the strong security presence in Tehran.

11:02am This is apparently a video of a night rally in Tabriz from today.

10:58am A reliable twitter source is reporting that the cry of “Allahu Akbar” can be heard in the all the major cities in Iran.

10:55am Also unconfirmed: Mousavi has met with clerics in Qom this morning.

10:52am This is unconfirmed but apparently Mousavi has said that “Neda is not an angel-the angels aspire to Neda.”

10:48am Today there were at least two attempting rallies to mourn Neda’s death. Both were violently broken up. Many people were beaten and arrested. In both cases the security forces far outnumbered the protesters. Also security forces attacked nearby homes where people were seen filming events. This update comes from The Lede.

10:45am Reports from reliable sources on twitter are indicating that security forces have set up checkpoints throughout the city. Parliament and many of the ministry buildings are under heavy guard.

10:10am There are reports that the Iranian government is telling people that if they do not show up to work they will be immediately fired. Reports are also indicating that Mousavi has called for a national strike tomorrow. This is still inconfrimed. The strikes will be critical; if they fail to materialize then the opposition is going to face serious problems.

10:03am Last night I mentioned that the government hasn’t made any stupid mistakes. That is not entirely true since the Ayatollah’s Friday sermon was perhaps the greatest mistake Iran has made in a while and it will surely have serious reprecussions. The sermon was a serious miscalculation. Lets take an example from a game of poker. Khamenei is by far the big stack but the opposition still has a sizable stack of their own. Khamenei is dealed a mid pair. He pushes all in to attempt to scare the opposition out of the pot. He figures that his large chip count (i.e. his political stature, authority and capital) will be enough to push around any opposition. Meanwhile, the opposition has received a high pair. The opposition calls Khamenei and exposes his hand for what it really is: a weak pair. On Friday Khamenei overestimated his influence and now he has weakened his political capital.  People are willing to openly oppose him and have exposed weaknesses in his leadership and authority. He will not have the same level of prominance as he has enjoyed over the last two decades.

With the opposition continuing to maintain a presence what should the government do to re-establish order (ordered based on severity).

1. Ahmadinejad needs to be censured. He is now a polarizing figure and is a liability in domestic affairs. His role needs to be minimized and carefully controlled. Domestic governing should be ceded to the clerics while Ahmadinejad represents Iran to the outside world (although even this could lead to problems).

2. All protesters who have been arrested should be released. There’s nothing wrong with arresting demonstraters since its done all the time in the United States, but they should be released immediately. Imprisoning people has little strategic value and only fuels anger toward the state.

3. A revote should be held, but I feel that such an option can’t work. There’s no trust in the government and the only result that will placate the opposition is a Mousavi victory. At this point even if a completely fair election was held and Ahmadinejad still won, the opposition would not go away. But this is no longer about an election. As much as Mousavi pushes for a new election, this is really an opposition movement against the direction that Iran has been moving in the last few years. A revote would have been possible before the Ayatollah’s Friday sermon but now it is out of the question.

4. The Basij will be a problem in the long term. These people are little better than street thugs and have now become the state’s instrument of repression and terror. Due to the nature of their organization they seem to be more independent than past secret police forces used by the Soviet bloc governments. The moderates in the Iranian government should fear them since they have shown no qualms about brutally suppressing their fellow citizens. It’s not too far fetched to think that someday they could turn against the Iranian state if the hardliners were to lose their influence. A close eye needs to be kept on the Basij. Potentially they might need to be dismantled and reintegrated with regular security forces.

5. Khamenei very well may have come close to bringing down the Iranian state. The government cannot afford a similar mistake again especially if the opposition is able to better organize itself. The clerics should seriously begin to question Khamenei’s political skills and whether a single Supreme Leader is best for Iran. Collective leadership might be the best option to ensure the security of the elite. The clerics need to seriously consider a reworking of the political structure that moderates the system.

Even if the hardliners are able to reassert control and generally suppress any outward visibilty of opposition, last week’s protests opened a wound in the Iranian system that cannot be ignored.

9:00am About 1,000 people attempted to gather to mourn Neda’s death but the gathering was quickly broken up by Basij. Reports indicate that the Basij are all over the city. Furthermore, it seems fear has trumped anger as many people are not leaving their homes. Mousavi is a hesitant leader. He has shown that he is willing to die for his cause but he doesn’t want to bring down the state. The opposition needs a “battlefield commander” who can organize day to day activities. Mousavi is doing a fine job of representing the opposition and inspiring people but without a daily presence organizing people the opposition cannot succeed.

8:09am Several hundred protesters gathered today but were quickly dispersed by police and Basij. The Revolutionary Guard has threatened to use force if protests continue.

Witnesses said helicopters hovered overhead as about 200 protesters gathered at Haft-e-Tir Square. But hundreds of anti-riot police quickly put an end to the demonstration and prevented any gathering, even small groups, at the scene.

The police are increasingly cracking down on any protesters and preventing large gatherings. The demonstraters are going to have to be resourceful and change tactics. You can read the whole article here.

Trackback URI | Comments RSS