Archive for July, 2008

Jul 30 2008

Why the Berkeley Tree-Sitters are not Protected by the First Amendment

Published by Dan S under California and Local

Last week Alameda County Superior Court Judge Barbara Miller handed down her decision to allow the University of California to go ahead with the construction of its athletic center. In 2006 protesters occupied several trees near the stadium where the new structure was to be placed. Since then it has been a legal battle that has spawned copy-cat protests and many jokes pointed at UC Berkeley.

And yet why have the tree-sitters been able to occupy the trees for so long? The simple answer is that the campus has been too lenient and afraid to accept the risks involved in forcibly removing the protesters. However, it is questionable whether the tree-sitters are protected by the First Amendment.

The tree-sitters could be considered trespassers. The UC Berkeley campus belongs to the State of California and thus unwanted “guests” can be removed. The university has an area designated for protests. This argument is perhaps the weakest partly because a state university campus is quite different than a private residence or office complex.

More importantly the tree-sitters endanger the public safety. Besides any possible public health hazards from day-to-day living in a tree (garbage and human waste disposal), by delaying construction of the new facility, Memorial Stadium remains an earthquake hazard. The stadium’s retrofitting is tied into the athletic center’s construction. The ninety-one year old stadium lies right on top of the Hayward Fault and the effects of fault creep are obvious to the naked eye. I seriously question the structural integrity of the stadium especially when the “Big One” strikes. By delaying construction the tree-sitters are endangering over 70,000 lives when the stadium is at capacity on game days. The US Supreme Court has held that the freedom of speech is not protected if it endangers lives; the classic example being shouting fire in a crowded theater. In this case the protest does not immediately harm anyone, but it leaves the potential to grave future harm to a large amount of people.

The two red lines should be flush against each other

The two red lines should be flush against each other

Fault Creep Evidence on the Outer Walls

Fault Creep Evidence on the Outer Walls

The tree-sitters’ protest takes the freedom of speech too far. They are trespassing and desecrating property and they are posing a problem to public safety. The university should have recognized this and taken a tougher stand which would have saved them at least 2 years of legal battles. In fact the battle continues as last week’s ruling is being appealed. Meanwhile people temporarily occupied another tree on campus. The University reached a deal where one of the new tree sitters could join the rest and food would be provided daily. Why is the university letting the protest to continue? At UC Berkeley the freedom of speech is revered and all protest movements take guidance from the Free Speech Movement; however, today’s tree sitters are a far cry from Mario’s Savio.

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Jul 27 2008

President Bashir’s Indictment Will Leave the International Community With A Tough Choice

Published by Dan S under Foreign Affairs

In the next several weeks the International Criminal Court will consider the evidence presented by ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo and decide whether to indict Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir for war crimes and genocide. This case represents the first time that the ICC has gone after an a sitting head of state, and the first time that formal charges have been brought foward against Bashir for the events in Darfur. Bashir’s government has responded by saying that if the president is indicted than Sudan cannot guarantee the safety of UN personnel in the country. In light of security concerns the the UN Security Council can order the Court to withhold their judgment for an indefinite period of time, and many people are calling on the Security Council to do just that in order to protect the humanitarian mission.

If the ICC issues it’s indictment and the Government of Sudan holds to its word then the international community will be faced with a tough decision. The current peacekeeping force barely strong enough to protect itself from pillaging rebel groups. It will be Bosnia all over again if there are direct attacks from Sudanese forces. The international community will have three choices.

  1. They can increase the UN presence in the region. If the UN is going to be targeted by Sudanese troops and their proxies then they are going to need more support. Europe and the United States will need to contribute some forces but at the moment their attention is elsewhere. The promised attack and support helicopters would be helpful. Unfortunately the UN mission in Darfur is closely tied to Bashir’s wishes as the UN will not violate Sudan’s sovereignty; Russia and China will use their veto power to keep it that way. Furthermore, it’s possible that an enlarged UN presence that militarily engages with Sudanese forces could officially lose its neutrality which would not bode well for the UN forces currently in the region.
  2. A coalition of countries could become independently involved similar to the NATO presence in Bosnia. Such a coalition would not be tied to respecting Sudan’s sovereignty, and they would be independent of the UN. More importantly, the UN peacekeepers would be able to keep their neutrality while at the same time receiving adequate protection. Yet there are many problems with this approach. Who would form this coalition? Since Western powers have little involvement in the region there is very little reason why they would commit troops, yet Europe and the United States are best suited for this mission. A strong international coalition would add another faction to the already faction ridden region. Also it would complicate the chain of command (who’s responsible? UN or Coalition forces?). Any military intervention in Darfur would ignite a war which would lead to the ousting of Bashir. Therefore, the international community would have to be prepared for nation building. But who would be the new president and cabinet? Finally, the African community is extremely hesitant to see a strong Western presence on the Continent.
  3. The last option is withdrawal of UN forces from Darfur. If attacks increase many contributing nations may want to pull out their troops. There can only be so many deaths before people back home demand that their soldiers be removed from combat. Eventually the conflict in Darfur would end as all conflicts do, but how many countless civilians would be killed?

Option number 2 is the most risky and most costly. It may only make the situation worse by turning the entire country into a war zone. On the other hand it could be successful and bring an end to the conflict. Option 3 is a worst case scenario. If the UN were to withdraw it would be Rwanda all over again. It probably would go down as one of the worst decisions this century and the international community should be ashamed of itself. Option number 1 is the most politically stable solution; however, it brings no end to the conflict.

In the end of the day Ocampo’s push for Bashir’s indictment puts a choice before the international community. Do they continue to let Bashir have his way or do they take a stand against genocide and increase involvement in Darfur. Time will tell, and hopefully the international community will recognize that the latter is the right thing to do.

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Jul 25 2008

The Capture of Radovan Karadzic and Serbia’s Uncertain Future

Published by Dan S under Foreign Affairs

In a rather stunning turn of events Serbian forces captured former leader of the Bosnian Serbs, Radovan Karadzic. The one time psychiatrist turned war-criminal was found posing as a master of alternative medicine in Belgrade and had completely altered his appearance. Karadzic is charged with 11 counts of genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity; the shelling of Sarajevo, the massacre of 8,000 Bosniak men and youths in Srebrenica, targeting Bosnian and Croat political leaders, intellectuals, and professionals, unlawfully deporting and transferring civilians because of national or religious identity, and the destruction of homes, businesses, and sacred sites.

Image Source: BBC

Karadzic’s capture gives a boost to President Boris Tadic’s center-left government which has been struggling to retain control from the nationalist parties. It also provides one more condition for Serbia’s entry into the European Union. Earlier in the year the E.U. worked out a new agreement in order to bolster Tadic’s pro-Western party as it entered crucial elections. Compliance with the Hague’s Yugoslavia War Crimes Tribunal has long been a prerequisite for further progress towards E.U. membership.

Now that Karadzic has been turned over the only remaining fugitive is Ratko Mladic who was Karadzic’s military commander. Mladic may prove much more difficult to capture since he still has support from many Serbian military officers. Yet the momentum from Karadzic’s capture may be enough to bring Mladic to justice.

In any event, the E.U. should drop the Hague compliance prerequisite. Serbia has finally turned over one of the fugitives which shows that the new government wants to comply. Mladic’s capture may prove politically difficult and the E.U. should realize that forces outside of Tadic’s control are most likely protecting the war criminal. E.U. membership or at least a definite path toward membership will strengthen Serbia’s pro-Western government and perhaps make it more likely that Mladic will be handed over. In return Serbia will be less of a headache in European politics and bring an end to the difficulties in the Balkans. Serbia’s E.U. membership is a win-win situation for Serbia and Europe.

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Jul 23 2008

Obama’s World Tour

Published by Dan S under National

Today Barack Obama finished his whirlwind tour of the Middle East and Afghanistan, and is now moving on to Europe. So far he is being treated as if he were the President of the United States as he meets with top leaders in Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine, and Israel. Tomorrow he arrives in Germany where he is set to give a speech that is expected to bring out a large crowd in Berlin. If the world were deciding Election ‘08 then Obama would breeze through to a victory. In a poll conducted in the United Kingdom the ratio of who would vote for Obama versus John McCain was 5 to 1. Obama has become Europe’s favorite political figure.

Obama is doing everything right on his trip. In Afghanistan he called for more troops to be deployed to the region as he recognized the dire situation facing the country. Then in Iraq he obtains Prime Minister Maliki’s endorsement of his plan to withdraw US troops from the country. In other words Maliki jumps the Bush/McCain “Stay the Course Express” and hops onto the “Yes We Can Midnight Special.” After Iraq it was off to Israel where he shored up support among Jewish voters back home and immersed himself in Israel-Palestine politics. Tomorrow he puts himself before thousands of adulating Europeans.

Meanwhile what is McCain doing? While Obama’s been acting presidential, he’s been firing off a series of empty statements such as “I know how to win a war.” What war is he referring to? Vietnam? Nope, we lost that one. Besides McCain was a POW during the war. Iraq I? If being a Senator allows you to take credit then yes, but a child could have won that “war.” Obama’s tour gives the Illinois Senator much needed credibility in foreign relations, which knocks the wind out of one of McCain’s sails. Furthermore, the press coverage of Obama’s trip causes McCain to be desperate for air-time.

When Obama returns to the States it will be interesting to see if public opinion polls change. The trip has basically been nothing but positive attention, and Obama has presented himself as extremely presidential which is key to strong public opinion. And that is the most important part of his trip. He is showing to the American people that he is presidential material and that he is no where close to being naive on foreign affairs. As for the admiring Europeans? Hopefully they don’t have too high expectations since if Obama were to be elected to office he would face many obstacles and restraints that are inherent in the office of the President.

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Jul 20 2008

The Surge in Iraq: a Model for Fighting Crime at Home

Published by Dan S under National

In Washington D.C. after a series of shootings the police are going to resume setting up checkpoints throughout the neighborhood that was the epicenter of the latest crimes. Thus, the home front turns into a very toned down version of the conflict a world away. Here’s the link to the article:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/19/AR2008071901679.html?hpid=moreheadlines

D.C. officials report that the last time they used checkpoints (June of this year) there were no killings. The police chief has an initiative called “All Hands on Deck” where police officers will flood an area that has had a recent spike in violence. Sounds an awful lot like the “Surge” in Iraq.

The important underlying concept is that violence and lawlessness will occur in areas where the state has no presence whether by choice (corruption) or inability (lack of resources). According to this concept, the best way to reverse these trends is to extend the presence of the state. A substantial state presence should lead to a decrease in violence as areas of Iraq have shown.

However, surge tactics are only short to medium term solutions. It is impossible to extend the state’s presence in every area of violent activity for an infinite amount of time. The territory is just too big and there’s never enough resources. Small jurisdictions may be able to hold their presence longer, but it will always be a drain on vital resources. In order to make sure that the violence does not return when the military/police presence leaves there needs to be fundamental changes to the political and social environment. It is a two prong approach:

  1. The military or police move into to establish security and dispense certain services quickly. Military medics can act as doctors for the community and can dispense food and water if the area is severely impoverished. The police can provide bureaucratic functions.
  2. As soon as security is established the state moves in with the necessary services such as electricity, water, garbage removal, schools, and hospitals. On the home front the state does not have to build or extend basic services in most cases. Instead, the existing services need to be improved and the state needs to provide anti-poverty measures and specialized services.

Like in Iraq, America’s violent neighborhoods will not be pacified with a substantial military presence. Instead there needs to be concrete improvements to the daily lives of the neighborhood’s residents. A military or police presence can quick-start the process by immediately extending the presence of the state, but the state has to follow up with much needed services and initiatives to combat poverty. The militarized buildup only buys time for the state to act.

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Jul 18 2008

California’s Failing Education System Goes Beyond the School Yard

Published by Dan S under California and Local

This week state educators released data that showed 24% of high school will drop out. The number is far higher among African Americans and Latinos at 42% and 30% respectively. The new data puts the dropout rate at nearly 10% higher than previous data and has shocked educators across the state. The data clearly highlights how far the the Californian K-12 education system has atrophied.

Simply put schools are not receiving proper funding or funds are being misused. Affluent districts are able to get by through local taxes and bonds, but the poor inner-city districts do not have that luxury. Things are only made worse when incompetent administration is added to the mix. It is no wonder that the worst performing districts are also those with high dropout rates. It’s not the students that are failing, but the schools that are failing the students.

The fact the highest dropout rates are among non-Asian minority groups in inner-city districts suggests that part of the problem goes beyond the education system. Once the last big civil-rights legislation passed through Congress in the 1960s and Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated, the African American population has been forgotten. However, racial equality has not be achieved yet in this country, and the 42% dropout rate among African American students supports this.

So what needs to be done?

  1. Funding for public education needs to be increased. Of course money just can’t be handed out; there needs to be accountability and transparency. One of the most important areas to add funding to are counseling departments. In today’s schools it is incredibly easy for a student to fall through the cracks and be forgotten. A strong counseling department can keep tabs on these failing students, motivate them, encourage them, and keep them in school. It is also important to have college counselors that guide students through high school and into college. In today’s world anyone can go to college, so that message needs to be made known to those who have not even considered college perhaps because no one in their family went to college. The majority of high school students are not mature enough yet to make the right life decisions; they need guidance.
  2. Poverty needs to be aggressively combated. As extensions of the state, schools may be a good place to implement anti-poverty measures since schools provide access to a vast number of households.

Both points are mutually reinforcing. By improving the education system and keeping kids in school longer then poverty should decrease as the standard of living increases. By addressing poverty the school systems will be improved as more money and resources can be diverted from daily living to improving the school system. Unfortunately, California’s debt will make it hard, if not impossible, to increase spending in education and fight poverty. Taxes should be increased, but in today’s faltering economy it will most likely be political unpopular to raise taxes. A large debt and a weak economy do not go well with each other.

The 24% dropout rate is more than a statistic, it is a wakeup call about how our failing education system and America’s social-economic inequality.

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Jul 16 2008

How Green is Your Electric Utility II?

Published by Dan S under California and Local

This is a follow up to my first post on this topic, How Green is Your Electric Utility? with revised numbers and the addition of nearly every power utility in California. The original purpose of compiling this data was to compare investor owned utilities with municipal utilities to find which one offered more green energy. The California, PG&E, and SCE data has been revised, and San Diego Gas & Electric has been added.

Here are the charts and data:

california-electric-utilities

The utilities included:

  • PG&E
  • SCE
  • SDG&E
  • Los Angeles Department of Water and Power
  • Sacramento Municipal Utility District
  • Riverside Public Utilities
  • Anaheim
  • Glendale
  • Lodi
  • Pasadena
  • Plumas-Sierra
  • Redding Electric Utility
  • Roseville
  • Silicon Valley Power
  • Burbank
  • Alameda Power & Telecom
  • Banning Power
  • Azusa
  • Healdsburg
  • Imperial Irrigation District
  • Ukiah
  • City of Vernon

A couple remarks about the data:

  1. While I do compared the California municipal utilities with the national investor owned utilities it is important to remember that often the investor-owned utilities only reported their power generation mixes. By California law, the Californian power utilities have to report their entire power mix (generation and purchase). Thus, the investor-owned utilities excluding PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E could quite possibly have higher renewable energy mixes.
  2. Alameda Power & Telecom (55%), Ukiah (54%), and Healdsburg(48%) were by far the leaders in renewable energy. Palo Alto also gets a sizable amount of their energy from non-fossil fuel sources (mostly large hydroelectric). Burbank was the worst with only 1% of their energy coming from renewable energy as of 2006. Azusa, Riverside, Pasadena, and Anaheim are highly dependent on coal (over 65%). Azusa receives 75% of their energy from coal.
  3. Overall municipal utilities are more green than the investor-owned utilities. Even when compared to only the Californian investor-owned utilities (who are far greener than the rest of the country), municipal utilities still outperform them.
  4. I noticed that Southern Californian utilities used far more coal than Northern Californian utilities so based on past data I decided to split the municipal utility group into Northern California and Southern California. The results were shocking. Northern Californian municipal utilities were far greener than their southern counterparts. In fact Southern California municipal utilities were less green than the combined average for PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E. SoCal municipal utilities were only slightly more green than the average computed for the national investor owned utilities.
  5. Many of the municipal utilities matched their renewable energy content with the state’s renewable energy content. If PG&E, SCE, SDG&E, and the other large utilities in the state take the lead in improving their renewable energy content, then the smaller districts should do the same.

Coal is definitely a problem or a roadblock in the move toward renewable energy. The low price of coal makes it hard for utilities to invest in renewable energy without raising rates. What I’m currently looking into at the moment is the link between the use of coal and the investment in the renewable energy. There seems to be a very small negative correlation, but I’m unsure of my calculations. If anyone is interested in this topic and is knowledgeable in the realm of statistics, please contact me and help me run the data to find some answers.

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Jul 13 2008

Colorado Voters Will Decide Whether to Expand “Personhood” to Fertilized Eggs

Published by Dan S under National

In November voters in Colorado will vote on whether the words “person” or “persons” in the state constitution should “include any human being from the moment of fertilization.” Such an initiative is the first of its kind to go before voters in the nation’s history. The most striking part of the initiative is that it will expand legal rights to fertilized eggs; thus, abortion would be murder and those performing abortions could receive jail sentences. The amendment would also have implications in miscarriages even if unintentional, fertility clinics , and embryonic research.

The so-called Human Life Amendment is an absurd initiative that oversteps legal bound and most likely does not have a prayer in passing, so why is it appearing on the November ballot?

  1. If it does pass then it opens up a path to challenge Roe v. Wade
  2. It is an attempt to bring social conservatives and especially the religious right out to vote. McCain still isn’t very exciting to the religious right and many of those people will stay home in November. These types of initiatives bring out the religious right which in turn aides conservatives running for office. It is a political ploy to drum up support.

Similar initiatives will appear across the United States to bring social conservatives to the polls. However, it is a bad year for anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage measures. If Obama is able to bring out the same amount and type of support he had in the primaries for the general election then the two sides will cancel each other out. Furthermore, if the youth vote materializes in November then these initiatives will suffer as younger voters tend to be more liberal. The Human Life Amendment is an example of a political ploy used during general elections and while in solid red or blue states they shouldn’t have an impact, in battleground states they could make a difference.

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Jul 11 2008

The “So What” of Iran’s Missile Tests

Published by Dan S under Foreign Affairs

This week Iran conducted a series of missile tests. According to Iran the new missile has a range that can reach Israel, but as usual Iran’s words do not match up with reality. According to the blog, ArmsControlWonk.com, the “new” missiles were no different than previous missiles.

Both Shahab-3 missiles have the same length-width ratio of about 12.3:1. Unless the Iranians decided to build a proportionally larger Shahab-3 – which wouldn’t really make it a Shahab-3 at all – or managed to increase the ISP of the Shahab-3 from 230 to about 285, the missile launched today is just the same 1,200 km range Nodong-1 knockoff the Iranians have had functional since as early as 1998.

Furthermore, the pictures of the tests were apparently doctored to show more missile launches (4 instead of 3) than what actually occurred. So what’s new?

Russia is claiming that the recent tests are further evidence that a missile defense shield is unnecessary since the missiles cannot reach Europe. They may have a point, since what is the point in investing in some technology that will never be used in the near future (unless of course the shield is really aimed at Russia).

Meanwhile the presidential nominees are taking the usual positions. McCain points to the tests as evidence for implementing the missile shield while Obama says they show a need for more diplomatic efforts. Nothing new.

What is interesting is that these tests come after Iran made statements suggesting that they would be willing to negotiate. It’s possible that the “flip-flopping” shows splits between the various factions in the Iranian government. We know that there are divisions between President Ahmadinejad’s right-wingers and the moderates. It is also possible that the tests are part of a diplomatic move before potential negotiations. It is often common practice to have a show of force before sitting down at the table in order to show that you have something to bargain. The tests are a “Hey look at us” and “Don’t underestimate us.”

So are these tests all that important? No. They are just Iran’s attempts to a be a key regional power.

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Jul 10 2008

Colombia: Parapolitics, the Chavez-FARC link, and Free Trade

Published by Dan S under Foreign Affairs

I am pleased to publish the work of Dr. William L. Marcy on the current situation in Columbia. Without further ado:

Colombia: Parapolitics, the Chavez-FARC link, and Free Trade

William L. Marcy Ph.D

Dr. William Marcy is an academic and researcher specializing in Latin American History. He received his Ph.D at State University of New York at Buffalo, and he lectures at St Martin’s University in Lacey, WA. His recent book, The Metamorphosis of the Drug War and the Cold War in the Northern Andes and Central America (1970-2001), is an examination of the United States’ narcotics policy in the northern Andes and Central America between 1970 and 2001. It focuses on the development of the United States’ counternarcotics policy and how that policy was conflated with anti-communism and the Cold War in the northern Andes and Central America.

The recent and most stunning rescue mission conducted by the Colombian military of Ingrid Betancourt and three U.S. counternarcotics contractors for the Pentagon from the FARC-a Colombian guerrilla organization-is a victory that should be celebrated by all. As hostages of the FARC, Betancourt and the U.S. contractors were high-level pawns in a struggle that has existed within Colombia for more than 40 years.

Recent events in Colombia such as this rescue mission have been high-profile demonstrations by the Colombian government to show that it is winning the war on drugs and deserves a free trade deal with the United States. Indeed, the FARC has been severely weakened and it appears as though U.S. aid has helped Colombia begin to win. However, when one looks at Colombia and the prosecution of the war on drugs, not everything is as it seems. Significantly, owing to the political complexities of Colombia and the fact that high-profile events have overshadowed more critical assessments of the war on drugs, underreporting and misleading information presented by the right and the left have prevented the U.S. public from receiving a clear picture regarding U.S. policy in Colombia.

President Bush inherited a counternarcotics program called Plan Colombia from former president Bill Clinton. In 2001, President Bush renamed U.S. policy and launched a multi-country program called the Andean Regional Initiative (ARI) and the Andean Counterdrug Initiative (ACI), as a way to counter narcotics production in Colombia and the Andean region. Similar to his father’s Andean Initiative and Andean Trade Preferences Act, the ARI was designed to promote democracy, economic development and regional stability, while the ACI was designed to sustain Plan Colombia and other regional counternarcotics programs. The percentage of the funding for these programs leaned towards military assistance in the form of ACI funding. For example, for fiscal year 2002, $625 million of the $782.82 million appropriated for the ARI was designated for the ACI; for fiscal year 2003, $700 million of the $835.5 million appropriated for the ARI went to the ACI.

The Bush administration launched the ARI and ACI while planning for its war in Iraq in 2002. Colombia held the temporary presidency of the UN Security Council. In exchange for renewed aid, the Colombian ambassador to the UN gave the Bush administration an unedited report on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. This report was to be given to all members of the UN at the same time after it was edited. However, by giving the Bush administration the report before hand, the Bush administration was able to disseminate and then provide the information to the other four permanent Security Council members as they saw fit to do so.

In July 2002, as part of an emergency supplemental spending bill, the U.S. Congress removed all restrictions on Colombia’ s use of U.S. counternarcotics aid so that it could support a “unified campaign against narcotics trafficking, terrorist activities, and other threats to its national security.” This opened the door for U.S. aid to be used directly against Colombia’s Marxist guerrillas, the Fuerzas Armadas de Colombia (FARC) and the Ejército Liberación Naciónal (ELN), who have been waging a guerrilla war against their governments since the 1960s. Notably, as the war on drugs progressed into the 1990s and the Cold War wound down, the guerrillas increased their involvement in the taxing of coca crops to finance their operations.

The guerrillas’ use of “revolutionary taxes” led to the appearance of paramilitaries in Colombia. During the late 1980s and early 1990s Colombia’s powerful Medellín and Cali cartels had become rural property owners linked to the conservative, land-holding elite. Many campesinos were displaced and migrated to regions such as Putumayo where there was little governmental authority. In these marginal regions, the FARC provided law and order and defended the campesinos’ interests, including participation in the narco-economy. As the cartel’s landholdings expanded, the FARC’s presence and control over the Medellín cartel’s activities in the rural areas seriously heightened tensions between the two factions and strengthened the cartel’s ties with the rural landholding elite. Consequently, the Medellín cartel formed paramilitary groups to attack the FARC. Members of the Colombian military who were frustrated with the military’s attempts to defeat the guerrillas formed a noteworthy portion of these paramilitary organizations. Significantly, growing ties between the Colombian military and the paramilitaries undermined peace efforts in 1987 as the FARC’s political party the Union Patriotica (UP) was decimated in a dirty war led by paramilitary units. By 1997, a majority of Colombia’s paramilitaries were united under one banner called the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC). By this pint the AUC and other paramilitary units were financing their anti-guerrilla activities through their cooperation with Colombia’s cartels and narcotics trafficking.

In 1999, peace efforts were renewed and the FARC was given a safe haven the size of Switzerland, called La
Zona de Distensión. Colombian President Andrés Pastrana argued that the guerillas’ revolutionary ideology would facilitate the ability to negotiate with them, whereas no settlement could be reached with the narco-traffickers. However, U.S. officials believed that the safe haven led to an increase in drug trafficking and insisted that Pastrana combat the “narco-guerrillas.” In many respects narcotics production in the rural area did increase, but not all of the production nor any of the processing could be directly attributed to the guerrillas. Moreover, there was no evidence that the FARC was directly involved in the trafficking of cocaine (the finished product) from Colombia. According to Undersecretary of State Thomas R. Pickering, “Colombia’s national sovereignty” was “increasingly threatened by well-armed and ruthless guerrillas, paramilitaries, and narcotrafficking interests which” were “inextricably linked” and had taken control over Colombia’s rural areas. In need of foreign assistance, Pastrana went to the United States for help. U.S. officials called for more military assistance and tuned Pastrana’s plan into a two-year, $7.5 billion dollar plan to attack narcotics production and any organization associated with it for fiscal years 2000-2001.

The increased military aid undermined Pastrana’s peace process as the FARC guerrillas claimed that the paramilitaries, aided by the Colombian military, had entered the
Zona de Distensión
to soften up the guerrillas. Violence in Colombia increased dramatically. With a severely demoralized military that had suffered serious losses during the late 1990s, Colombia was on the verge of becoming a failed state.

Following the September 2001 attacks against the United States by al Qaeda, the U.S. saw the FARC as a multinational terrorist network linked to the overall war on terror. In November that same year President Bush issued Executive Order 13224 which designated the FARC as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organization. By January 2002, President Pastrana ended all hopes for peace by discontinuing recognition of the Zona de Distensión. The election of Alvaro Uribe Vélez as president of Colombia in May 2002, indicated that the Colombian government was going to take a more hard-line stance against Colombia’s guerrillas.

Alvaro Uribe Vélez is from a prominent land-holding family in Colombia. Uribe’s father was assasinated by the FARC in 1983. Between 1995and 1997 Uribe was the Governor of Antioquia. As governor of Antioquia, Uribe was considered responsible for the formation of local defense units called CONVIVIR units. The CONVIVIR units were alleged to have worked with Colombian paramilitary units and were later incorporated into them after several units were ruled to be illegal. Moreover, a 1991 DIA report cited Uribe for assisting the Medellín cartel in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Uribe was “linked” to a business involved in narcotics activities in the United States. He was also considered “a friend of Pablo Escobar.” The State Department claimed that this information was not fully evaluated and could not be confirmed or denied.

As president, Uribe’s stance against the FARC and his efforts to demobilize the paramilitaries brought a semblance of stability to the urban centers of Colombia. Uribe’s attempts to negotiate peace with the guerrillas were unsuccessful. Peace talks started with the ELN in 2005 and collapsed in 2007 over the Colombian government’s demand that they concentrate all of their troops in one area. Negotiations between the Colombian government and the FARC also stalled as the military conducted more aggressive operations against the FARC with U.S. assistance. Further undermining peace negotiations, the Colombian government and the FARC traded accusations about paramilitarism and the penetration of drug money in all levels of politics and state security. In 2005, Uribe initiated the demobilization of paramilitary organizations. However, this effort was criticized by international organizations for offering favorable terms to the paramilitaries because it allowed them to remain intact and it prevented their leaders from being prosecuted on charges of drug trafficking or human rights abuses. Only recently in 2008 have important members like Salvatore Mancuso of the AUC been extradited to the U.S. by the Colombian government.

In 2007, the Uribe presidency found itself mired in several scandals that tied many members of his administration (his Secretary of State, Maria Consuelo Arajuo, and chief of the DAN, Jorge Noguera) and 33 members of his Liberal Party within the Colombian Congress to the paramilitaries. Moreover, in June 2008 it was revealed that Uribe had bribed Congresswoman Yidis Medina to vote to change the Colombian Constitution in order to allow him to run for a second term as president. This emerging scandal was perceived as damaging to Colombian interests prior to John McCain’s recent visit to Colombia and some analysts alleged that the hostage rescue mission was a way to deflect attention from Uribe’s political troubles.

Still, Uribe remains widely popular among the Colombian people with an 84% approval rating. However, his popularity is mostly in urban centers such as Bogotá, Medellín and Cartagena owing to his hard-line stance against the guerrillas.
Notably, there was a spontaneous and massive nationwide demonstration in the cities of Colombia against the FARC in February 2008. However, demonstrations against all violence including state and paramilitary violence were held in March, but the marches were marked by intimidation and government criticism that the marches were organized by the FARC. New marches against the FARC will be held in late July. However, the nation remains divided between the urban centers and the rural areas, which are populated by campesinos (peasant farmers), indigenous people and Afro-Colombians who have been the victims of paramilitary violence.

The Colombian military scored several victories against the FARC in 2008. These victories have decimated the FARC at the core of its leadership. In March 2008, the cross border attack on a FARC safe haven in Ecuador killed the spokesperson and number 2 in command of the FARC, Raul Reyes. The assassination of Iván Ríos another FARC commander, also in March 2008, by a deserter was another blow to the FARC’s organization. The FARC picked up small-scale attacks after these events, but the death of the FARC leader Manuel Marulanda on May 24, 2008, left the FARC hierarchy in disarray. Owing to desertions, the FARC’s operational capacity has been reduced from 16,000 men in uniform in 2001 to an estimated 9,000 men in uniform in 2008. Alfonso Caño in now believed to be in control of the FARC, but the recent success in freeing Ingrid Betancourt and the U.S. contractors has demonstrated the FARC’s weakness. Nevertheless, there are reports that the Colombian government actually paid $20 million to the guerrilla in charge of guarding the hostages and then exploited a decision already reached by the FARC’s central command to release the hostages by staging the elaborate rescue mission.

The assassination of Raul Reyes provided a wealth of information about the FARC and its relationship with other regional governments. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez leads the Socialist Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela and shares common political ground with the FARC, which has its own urban political front, called the Movmiento Bolivariano. Chavez had campaigned politically to have the FARC recognized as a legitimate political insurgency and have them taken off the international terrorism list. Chavez also supports Fidel Castro and has strengthened ties with the Iranian government, which the U.S. considers a state sponsor of terrorism.

Chavez’s political alliances and his criticism of the U.S. has made him the bane of U.S. policymakers in Latin America. Documents retrieved from Raul Reyes’ computer after he was killed in the cross border raid into Ecuador by the Colombian military revealed a deep relationship between Chavez and the FARC. Significantly, the captured documents revealed that Chavez had provided the guerrillas with $300 million. The documents also alleged that Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa, who shares ideological ground with Chavez, had received money from the FARC to finance his political campaign for the presidency in 2006. Of even greater concern, the documents also exposed an attempt by the FARC to sell 50 kilograms of uranium although the amount was not enough to extract the isotope to make an atomic bomb or even a dirty bomb. Still, owing to the ties between Chavez and Iran, speculation exists on whether there was an attempt to sell the uranium to the Iranian government, which is suspected of having a secret nuclear weapons program. Chavez has claimed that the documents whose validity were verified by INTERPOL, were part of a disinformation campaign.

In the meantime, FARC deserters have reported that the group found a secure refuge in Venezuela in return for bribes and formed a non-aggression pact with the Venezuelan military. In addition, the Venezuelan border, a FARC operational area, has become a conduit for narcotics leaving Colombia. More than 30% of Colombian cocaine now transits through Venezuela. Chavez has responded to these allegations by claiming that they were an attempt to “demonize” his government. Chavez added that his government had “landed the strongest blows against drug trafficking in Venezuelan history” by seizing 142 tons of cocaine since 2004. Chavez has also threatened war if the Colombian military, in pursuit of the FARC or drug traffickers, crosses over into Venezuelan territory. While Venezuela has restored political ties with Colombia Ecuador has not. Venezuela and Colombia have promised more cooperation and in the recent wake of FARC setbacks Chavez has called for the FARC to lay down their arms. Nevertheless, tensions along Colombia’s borders remain high owing to ideological differences and will continue to persist if military actions continue across each nation’s border.

Colombia’s capacity to produce large quantities of the coca leaf has not been diminished since 2001 and the implementation of the ACI and ARI. According to the United Nations, in 2007 Colombian coca growers expanded the amount of land under cultivation by 27%. Between 2003 and 2006, coca production increased from 114,100 hectares to 157,000 respectively. It has been argued by experts that the use of herbicides has caused an increase in coca production to shore up for losses incurred by spraying. Moreover, herbicides often destroy the legitimate crops of campesinos who grow coca as a form of insurance against crop failure, thus undermining their willingness to develop alternative crops. Another problem with the continued use of herbicides is the appearance of herbicide-resistant coca plants grown at higher altitudes. The level of alkaloids (the substance derived from the plant to make cocaine) in these plants is much lower and as a result, coca growers plant more plants to make up for this shortfall. The Colombian military has recently placed more emphasis on manual eradication over aerial fumigation because it is believed to produce better results. This policy is considered to be more dangerous because it threatens to bring the military into direct contact with traffickers and guerrillas.

The Bush administration and the Republicans have pushed free trade as a way to curtail narcotics production in Colombia. However, there is a problem with this argument. Free trade will actually cause an increase in coca production. People who produce coca are campesinos who have few alternatives. Many agricultural products grown in the rural parts of Colombia provide slim margins of profit when they are brought to the market. Moreover, crop substitution programs have failed miserably owing to a lack of long-term support for their development. Thus, coca is much more profitable than anything else grown in the region although it entails more risk. Free trade opens Colombia to U.S. agricultural imports, which are produced by subsidized agribusiness. As a result, many experts argue that while free trade may benefit many sectors of Colombia’s economy, it will undermine the economy of Colombia’s peasants because they will be unable to compete with U.S. subsidized agribusinesses. When previous free trade liberalization policies were conducted such as Colombia’s economic opening during the early 1990s (also known as “La Apertura”), coca production spiked. Experts once again argue that the free trade deal will lead to an increase in coca production. Moreover, economic deregulation accompanied by pervious trade deals conducted by Colombia and the United States has helped facilitate money laundering between both nations though the use of dummy corporations.

The Democrats on the other hand oppose free trade on the basis that it undermines U.S. workers and gives support to a government that has done little to combat human rights abuses by paramilitaries. Yet, Colombia’s trade unions actually favor the free trade act because it will benefit the industries where they are employed. While the Democrats’ concerns regarding paramilitary violence against labor unionists are justified, denying Colombia the free trade deal presents another set of problems. In particular, the Colombian people will ask how can the United States close the door on Colombia when they have been such a staunch ally of the United States in a region dominated by Chavez and have sacrificed their own blood and treasure to fight the U.S. war on drugs?

There is no panacea to the problem within Colombia. It is clear that paramilitarism is not dead in Colombia. The Colombian government has recently increased its efforts to show that it is cracking down on paramilitary units, but many still operate with impunity and are highly entrenched in Colombia’s narcotics underworld. Moreover, there are indications that they have penetrated the highest echelons of Colombia’s national government. The penetration of the narcotics cartels and paramilitaries in the Colombian government is nothing new if we look back at the Samper presidency, although the U.S. reaction was more punitive than the current reaction shown by the Bush administration. Concern should be expressed that the U.S. is not providing money to a government that says it is fighting the war on drugs by attacking the guerrillas while at the same time it overlooks the illegal activities of narcotics financed paramilitary organizations.

The FARC is not to be counted out yet. However, it lost its political legitimacy a long time ago when it turned itself into a criminal organization that was financed by narcotics and kidnapping. Support for its Marxist revolution is dying as Colombia becomes more urbanized. The interference of Hugo Chavez has seriously undermined regional stability. Chavez and his regional partners see Colombia as a puppet, which is being propped up by U.S. military support. Yet, Chavez’s contribution to peace in Colombia has been equally as hypocritical as the members of the Colombian Congress and the Uribe administration who are under investigation for their links to the paramilitaries.

It is argued that military security will enable the Colombian government to control coca production. On the contrary, the military defeat of the FARC will not end coca production in Colombia. As an example, the 1992 collapse of the Peruvian guerrilla organization known as the Sendero Luminoso did not end narcotics production in Peru. Significantly, after 1992, narcotics production remained at stable levels (between 108,000 and 115,000 potential hectares) until 1996, when a fungus known as fusarium oxysporum took hold in the Upper Huallaga Valley. By 2000, potential coca production fell to its low of 43,400 hectares, but rose to 50,000 hectares by 2007, as coca farmers learned to adapt to forced eradication and the effects of fusarium oxysporum. Moreover, sporadic attacks by remnants of the Sendero and violent campesino demonstrations in the remote parts of Peru continue. These figures prove that the defeat of the guerrillas did not stop narco-trafficking. The need for narcotics production goes on even after the guerrillas are defeated, especially if coca farmers do not find adequate economic opportunities.

Free trade with Colombia will be an issue in the upcoming presidential campaign, but neither side seems to understand the implications of the positions that they have taken. On the one side, free trade undermines the rural economy and threatens to create a spike in coca production. On the other side, opposition to free trade sends a negative signal to a staunch ally who has made great sacrifices to fight the war on drugs. Clearly, a third way needs to be found regarding this issue. Trade should consider the economic situation of Colombia’s campesino farmers if it wants to halt coca production. Moreover, trade should be based on what benefits each nation. It should not be based on an abstract idea, which undermines the standards of living of those each government supposedly represents.

While the U.S. should continue to support the Colombian government, U.S. citizens should look at U.S. policy with more scrutiny. The sporadic news reports on Colombia which demonstrate daring raids and attacks do not give the U.S. public a clear picture of what is going on regarding the war on drugs. U.S. citizens must be sure that we have not developed a policy that has run amuck. Careful vigilance against corruption should be maintained. Support for the Colombian military and police in order to ensure that they become more professionalized and are able to fight all forms of illegal activity must be maintained. However this support should not be offered at the price of continued human rights abuses by military-backed paramilitary forces. A peace effort that is not disguised as a covert method to conduct a dirty war against the guerrillas is the only sure way to entice the guerrillas to lay down their arms. Yet, at the same time, the guerrillas should not be given any leeway to pursue their criminal activities. Economic policy must reflect the reality on the ground in Colombia. Colombia must not be punished for being our ally, but the free trade deal should also consider the impact it will have on Colombia’s coca growers. Weaning coca growers away from their dependence on coca should be the ultimate goal of the United States for it will help prevent the recruitment of future guerrillas and curtail illegal activity in the remote and unstable parts of Colombia.

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