Two weeks after Iran’s tumultuous elections it’s now clear that whatever political conflict has emerged in Iran will not be resolved any time soon. Rather, the nature and direction of change in the Islamic Republic will remain obscure, and whatever resolution this conflict may have will only be found in a protracted process. Whether civil unrest will continue to foment and mature like it did in Iran’s 1979 Revolution or whether a political solution by the establishment can be had remains to be seen. Iran’s social unrest has certainly derailed Obama’s diplomatic efforts to engage Iran on the nuclear issue, but the likely paths Iran’s social unrest could take may also provide new diplomatic opportunities for the US moderate Iranian politics. Because directly meddling in Iran’s domestic politics is out of the question, just how much pressure the US can assert over Iran will largely hinge on what approach Iran’s political establishments will now take.
There is little the US can do if Iran’s government continues to crack down on political dissenters and maintain a conservative hardline. However, that possibility threatens the internal legitimacy and political stability of Iran and would more likely lead to an overthrow of the political system like in 1979. On the other hand if crackdowns do little to quail the civil unrest the Iranian establishment may become more moderate on its own in self preservation. Changing the political structure or removing from power hardline conservatives that have become the target of the protests could end political dissent and preserve Iran’s political institutions. This solution largely depends on whether the opposition can organize and find support within the political establishment and Iran’s military to overrule Supreme Leader Khamenei. However, such a process has no guarantee of working, and could stymie or become subject to crackdowns and purges.
The Iranian establishment could also attempt to quiet protestors and consolidate its political legitimacy by looking outside instead of inside its own country. It is this solution which could give the US some sway over Iran. This approach could come in two forms. The more direct and simpler form would be if the Iranian government tries to push for international recognition as a source of legitimacy. Although such a push may provide few diplomatic openings for the US at first, if Iran’s internal unrest worsens it could elevate the value of such a gesture to the Iranian government. Even so, the influence and effectiveness of such a gesture remains a long shot at best. More substantively, Iran’s government could seek to consolidate its political legitimacy by reintegrating itself to the world economy. Such an attempt would seek to co opt the opposition by appeasing their positions on Iranian policy held during the election. However, this solution would also require Iran’s government to make concessions to western powers that it may be unwilling to carry out—including concessions over its nuclear program—which also makes this possibility a long shot.
Any potential for US diplomatic engagement with Iran will rely on how desperate the Iranian government is to maintain its power in a potential political overthrow by opposition forces (should they persist). The key to any chance for the US to draw out concessions from Iran’s current government in the future will depend on the state of Iran’s internal stability and its willingness to seek political survival over its desire to preserve a political hardline. So long as Iran’s political establishment exhibits the desire to survive at any cost, the US will have the opportunity diplomatically squeeze Iran in an uncomfortable double bind that forces it to choose between a gamble with an increasingly discontent society and a compromise of its hardline policy. Of course, successful silencing of dissent is just as likely an outcome and would lead to a more extreme Iran which would prove even more difficult to engage with. In any case, Iran’s political circumstances have fundamentally changed, forcing the Obama to reassess his Iran policy. Nonetheless, just as it has ruined old opportunities, such a change may provide new ones.
This will be my last real-time blogging entry. I was happy to notice that over the last two weeks my entries became the primary source of information on Iran for many of you. Has the opposition lost? Definitely not. The street demonstrations may be over, but the people are still angry, The form of protest has shifted from an outward to an inner expression. Thust, there just isn’t as much information flowing out of Iran. Iran has changed even if the same people are in power. So thank you for taking such an interest in what could be one of the most important events of the the twenty-first century’s first decade.
2:32pm Today Senator McCain has proposed legislation that would provide assistance to evade Iranian government censors. McCain has absolutely no idea what he is talking about. Right now the Iranian government is attempted to show that Mousavi received foreign aid in order to crush the opposition and effectively marginalize the moderates. In this climate does McCain actually want to send aid to the opposition? Sending aid would completely undermine the opposition. The opposition hasn’t even asked for western assistance.
McCain seems to think that all democratic movements are inherently pro-Western since democracy is a Western idea. He cites examples from Eastern Europe during the Cold War to support his case. While there are important lessons to draw from these cases, they also must be looked at through the lens of the Cold War. The Poles wanted to enjoy the benefits of the West and were completely disatisfied with their society (not just their leaders). Programs such as Voice of America may have been important, but consumerism was just as important. People turned to the West not to listen to VOA but learn the latest fashions and appliances. A Pole in 1989 is not an Iranian in 2009. McCain continues to fail to grasp this fact.
It is understandable why McCain thinks this way. Just like millions of people he got swept away by the media coverage. He saw in Iran a opportunity to leave his mark on history. Here was a moment of historical preportions and he wanted to take advantage of it. Of course the problem is that events in Iran are out of US control.
I have repeatedly pointed out McCain’s lack of understanding on issues relating to international relations. During his presidential campaign half the time he didn’t know what he was talking about. To put it bluntly, international relations are above McCain’s head. In the foreign policy debate McCain was asked the question of how we would intervene in cases of human rights violations. He replied that he would carefully look at the situation before committing US resources. Where is that thinking today? Good intentions but with disasterous consequences.
1:41pm The Iranian government continues to make the case that the protests were instigated by foreign forces. There are reports that the government is attempting to extract to extract confessions from Mousavi supporters through torture. If the government can “prove” that Mousavi was backed by foreign forces then the government can have “just cause” to eliminate Mousavi. In its attempt to find a bogeyman, Iran is turning itself into a joke in the international community. Furthermore, is it really a good thing to suggest that foreign forces can so easily infiltrate into Iran, remain undectected, and garner significant support? That is an insult to the Iranian people.
1:35pm Today people across Tehran released green balloons in a sign of protest. The calls of “allahu akbar” continue into the night.
1:30pm Early today an Iranian cleric issued a strong statement against organizers of the opposition.
I ask the judiciary to behave harshly and cruelly with the leaders of the protests, as they are fed by the U.S. and Israel, so that it will teach a lesson to others
I will be updated this entry to the best of my ability with the latest aggregated news coming out of Iran. The Lede from the New York Times has been an incredible source of aggregated news and I will draw heavily on that. Twitter, however, has become the best source for information. I am currently monitoring the Twitter feeds (#iranelection). It’s hard to get completely reliable information as rumors are common and the Iranian government is spreading false information. Also the foreign press has been banned from covering the street protests. I will update this entry continuously so just refresh the page to get updates and all times are Pacific.
12:44pm There are rumors from multiple sources that Rafsanjani and the moderates may have reached a comprise with Khamenei to end the bloodshed. The compromise would be to hold a runoff election between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi. However, if there was extreme vote fraud in the first election, what is going to prevent that vote fruad occuring in a runoff?
12:33pm The Telegraph is reporting that large amounts of capital are flowing out of Iran. Furthermore, many companies are refusing to put more capital into Iran unless there is political stability. You can read the article here.
12:14pm There are still several different accounts of events yesterday. The Lede has mentioned another account that suggests that the brutality was limited to beatings. The witness suggests that other more bloody accounts have been altered as they have ciriculated among the people. At least one of the reliable twitter sources reported bloodshed and several other accounts of extreme brutality. It’s one thing if there were different accounts of minor details but what we are confronted with now is two completely different accounts of the level of violence. The only potential explanation is that the accounts are from different times. Otherwise one set of accounts are completely wrong. Here’s a video from yesterday. Apparently this shows one of the main streets that leads to the square where the supposed “massacre” occurred. The quality is very bad.
12:03pm There has been practically no word coming out of Iran today. Ahmadinejad lashed out at Obama and demanded an apology, but there has been no word on any opposition activity. There were some rumors of street clashes, but not attempted rallies. A planned rally was called off today by Karroubi. It seems the political leaders (Mousavi and Karroubi) are backing off and may even be distancing themselves from the more radical demonstrations.
I will be updated this entry to the best of my ability with the latest aggregated news coming out of Iran. The Lede from the New York Times has been an incredible source of aggregated news and I will draw heavily on that. Twitter, however, has become the best source for information. I am currently monitoring the Twitter feeds (#iranelection). It’s hard to get completely reliable information as rumors are common and the Iranian government is spreading false information. Also the foreign press has been banned from covering the street protests. I will update this entry continuously so just refresh the page to get updates and all times are Pacific.
4:00pm I point you to this blog entry because it raises an interesting and sad point. For the past week and a half the twitter account, persiankiwi, has been the best and most reliable source of information coming out of Iran. Today his/her/their account went silent sometime in the late evening Tehran time. The last posts suggest a desperate situation.
rumour they are tracking high use of phone lines to find internet users – must move from here now -
phone line was cut and we lost internet – getting more difficult to log into net -
we must go – dont know when we can get internet – they take 1 of us, they will torture and get names – now we must move fast
The entries from this account from today paint a horrifying picture of what the situation is currently like in Tehran. Yet, this one twitter account when looked at over the past week and a half tells the story of what happened in Iran. The first entries are ones of distrust and betrayal. Quickly they turn into excitment as the opposition takes tothe steet in the million plus rallies. There are detailed bits of information from around the country. They are also filled with mourning as protesters are killed. Meanwhile, the quick responses always suggest a sense of urgency and a need to constantly be on the run. Everything changes on Saturday. Horror sets in and there’s a feeling of desperation. Some of the messages are almost messianic claiming that Rafsanjani will soon step in and everything will be fine. But never is there any thought of giving up. Then today the messages are beyond horror. The reports become gruesome.
in Baharestan we saw militia with axe choping ppl like meat – blood everywhere – like butcher – Allah Akbar
The accounts of abomination turn into dread especially with the message that the phone line and internet had been cut. There’s a sense that he/she/they are being tracked and are running out of places to hide. The finally two messages are almost a farewell and an acceptance of what is about to come:
thank you ppls 4 supporting Sea of Green – pls remember always our martyrs – Allah Akbar – Allah Akbar – Allah Akbar
Allah – you are the creator of all and all must return to you – Allah Akbar – Sea of Green
And then there is silence. We can’t say what happened; perhaps he/she/they are in hiding but the impression is that the security forces finally caught up. Horror, terror, dread. To the outside world the twitter account of persiankiwi is the heart, soul, and narrative of the opposition.
3:54pm The Lede points to some eyewitness reports from today that completely contradict other reports.
I was there from 5:15 to 7:30. It was very tense. Being out in Baharstan was an act of defiance. No one said anything, there were only a few chants coming from outside the square. Although the police were a lot nicer, the Basij continued to be brutal. No one was allowed to stand in one place, we had to keep on moving. The moment we stood in one place, they would break us up. I saw many people get blindfolded and arrested, however it wasn’t a massacre. I heard that someone was killed, however I didn’t see it.
It seems odd that there would be discrepencies on the level of violence. The above account paints a picture similar to several of the attempted protests yesterday. The other accounts suggest that a massacre took place. Most accounts say they saw people die or be very severely beaten to the point of death. How can this account say he didn’t witness a single death? Furthermore, he makes no mention of any gunshots. All the other accounts mention gunshots and “firing into the crowd.” Since we can’t get any confirmation or images it’s extremely difficult to tell what exactly happened. Perhaps it wasn’t a “masscre,” but to say people were only beaten and arrested seems a little fishy.
12:33pm There are still no pictures or videos from Baharestan Square where the protest was supposed to occur. Considering the scale of the violence and the difficulty to transmit information now it seems unlikely that any video will emerge soon. However, all the eyewitness accounts point to extreme violence. The security forces seemed to have changed their strategy today. Up until yesterday they mainly attempted to contain any protesters and prevent any protest from gaining critical mass. Today they seemed to be clearly hunting down any protesters. The helicopters were used to track protesters so that they could be hunted down by militia on foot. The demonstrations may be smaller now but they are not going away. It seems now the only person who can stop the violence is Rafsanjani but he has essentially been invisible for the past week. When will he intervene? How much longer can the moderate clerics stand on the sideline?
12:31pm This was posted on the Lede about how Neda’s family had been evicted from their home and now there there is strong militia presence in the neighborhood.
Neighbours said that her family no longer lives in the four-floor apartment building on Meshkini Street, in eastern Tehran, having been forced to move since she was killed. The police did not hand the body back to her family, her funeral was cancelled, she was buried without letting her family know and the government banned mourning ceremonies at mosques, the neighbours said.
“We just know that they [the family] were forced to leave their flat,” a neighbour said. The Guardian was unable to contact the family directly to confirm if they had been forced to leave. [...]
Amid scenes of grief in the Soltan household with her father and mother screaming, neighbours not only from their building but from others in the area streamed out to protest at her death. But the police moved in quickly to quell any public displays of grief. They arrived as soon as they found out that a friend of Soltan had come to the family flat.
In accordance with Persian tradition, the family had put up a mourning announcement and attached a black banner to the building.
But the police took them down, refusing to allow the family to show any signs of mourning. The next day they were ordered to move out. Since then, neighbours have received suspicious calls warning them not to discuss her death with anyone and not to make any protest.
A tearful middle-aged woman who was an immediate neighbour said her family had not slept for days because of the oppressive presence of the Basij militia, out in force in the area harassing people since Soltan’s death.
9:15am Defeated candidate Karoubi has called the Iranian government illegitimate. There are reports that that Mousavi and Karoubi are now under arrest but these cannot be confirmed and could be scare tactics. However, we do know that Mousavi has been under increased pressure and most likely has security forces monitoring his every move.
9:11am This is an account of what happened at the rally today (this from a very reliable twitter source):
I see many ppl with broken arms/legs/heads – blood everywhere – pepper gas like war
they were waiting for us – they all have guns and riot uniforms – it was like a mouse trap – ppl being shot like animals
saw 7/8 militia beating one woman with baton on ground – she had no defense nothing – sure that she is dead
so many ppl arrested – young & old – they take ppl away – we lose our group
ppl run into alleys and militia standing there waiting – from 2 sides they attack ppl in middle of alleys
all shops was closed – nowhere to go – they follow ppls with helicopters – smoke and fire is everywhere
Another eyewitness report:
Defying government warnings, the witnesses said that hundreds, if not thousands of protesters, had attempted to gather in front of the parliament on Baharestan Square. They were met with riot police and paramilitary militia, who struck at them with truncheons, tear gas, and guns. One witness said he saw a 19-year-old woman shot in the neck.
9:09am This video shows some of the indiscriminate violence being used by security forces. We cannot confirm if this was from today.
9:07am Here is a video from what is supposedly today.
9:02am Today’s rally did go ahead but it was quickly met by security forces. We are still trying to figure out exactly what happened, but current accounts report to an extremely brutal reaction by security forces. It has been confirmed that security forces severely beat any protesters and shots were fired. What can’t be confirmed yet is if only a few shots were fired or if security forces indiscriminately opened fire into the protesters. What ever happened it was really bad.
I will be updated this entry to the best of my ability with the latest aggregated news coming out of Iran. The Lede from the New York Times has been an incredible source of aggregated news and I will draw heavily on that. Twitter, however, has become the best source for information. I am currently monitoring the Twitter feeds (#iranelection). It’s hard to get completely reliable information as rumors are common and the Iranian government is spreading false information. Also the foreign press has been banned from covering the street protests. I will update this entry continuously so just refresh the page to get updates and all times are Pacific.
5:01pm I can’t get a confirmation on the date of this video. It was posted today, but the evidence from today and yesterday was that the security forces have been able to crack down on any gatherings. There were reports of street clashes in parts of Tehran. What is important though is that they are apparently chanting “death to the Islamic Republic.” If so this would represent a further radicalization of the protesters. Up until this video as far as we could tell while the protesters had become anti-Khamenei they wanted to perserve the Islamic State. Now there appears to be elements that want a completely new form of governance. This is probably a fringe group but it represents a quick radicalization. Opposition like this could make moderates fearful of the protesters and rally them to the State. Or it could give Rafsanjani more leverage to push through his reforms in order to save the state. With that caution, watch the video for yourself.
4:15pm This is extremely speculative and was uncovered last week but I didn’t come across a reliable site reporting the story until today:
There were also unconfirmed reports that Mohammad Asgari, who was responsible for the security of the IT network in Iran’s interior ministry, was killed yesterday in a suspicious car accident in Tehran. Asgari had reportedly leaked evidence that the elections were rigged to alter the votes from the provinces. Asgari was said to have leaked information that showed Mousavi had won almost 19m votes, and should therefore be president.
This was reported by the Guardian.
3:30pm Mousavi’s website has confirmed that tomorrow’s rally will be held and it will not be cancelled under any circumstance.
2:11pm This was just posted by the twitter account linked to Mousavi’s campaign. A call for another rally tomorrow, but will this be any different than the attempt on Monday?
Please come to Baharestan Sq. in Tehran tomorrow at 4pm
2:07pm According to a reliable Iranian twitter the state newspaper, Kayhan, has called for the arrest of Mousavi.
11:07am The calls of “Allahu Akbar” continue tonight. Meanwhile the streets are full of roadblocks and militia.. Security forces definitely have exerted a tight control over the city.
11:04am There has been an extension on the amount of time for the Guardian Council to look into voting irregularities. Iran’s top legislative body requested Khamenei for the extension.
10:07am The state media is airing testimonies of arrested protesters saying that they were influenced by foreign sources (read: BBC and VOA). While some people probably have been influenced by foreign sources, these public testimonies seem awfully convienent. Having done research on this subject, it would seem that the Iranian government is probably using various forms of torture or continuous threats to bodily harm and family (although I would argue that this is also a form of torture) in order to ellicit a response that the interrogator wants. If you create such an intense atmosphere of terror most people will crack and tell whatever the interrogator wants to hear.
10:06am There are reports that many of the store fronts are shuttered in Tehran’s Grand Bizaar. It is unclear whether this is related to the strike or fear of unrest.
9:38am This is an interesting piece written by an Iranian posted on Tehran Bureau. You can read the whole text here.
The biggest post revolutionary horror story has always been the one about the Shah’s secret service, SAVAK; fast forward to Tehran today: The so-called ‘nameless soldiers of the hidden Imam’ (intelligence forces) who are exemplary for their ‘compassion and vigilance in uncovering terrorist plots’ have been unleashed to penetrate the ranks of the people, gather information and make arrests.
My question is, if they are so quick at uncovering “enemy plots” and so great at “controlling borders so that enemy agents cannot infiltrate the country and carry out their evil plots,” and if they are so ‘competent in protecting the country’s stability and security’ and if thanks to their efforts there is no problem regarding the possession of illegal firearms in Iran; how does this correspond with the claims that enemy elements have infiltrated the ranks of the people and are carrying out enemy plots, and that enemy elements are using illegal firearms to shoot protesters and frame the Iranian police.
9:36am Right now it is extremely difficult to figure out what exactly is going on in Iran right now. The claims of a general strike were not offical and it doesn’t appear that any of the sectors of the economy have gone on strike. Word is floating around to protest in the bazaars. Not only would this shut down the bazaars but the protesters would have the cover of people “shoppers” to explain their presence. There is no word that this was actually carried out. There may be another rally tomorrow where Mousavi will attend. This is not confirmed; however, what we do know is that the next three days are supposed to be days of mourning and there have been calls by the opposition for a rally to mourn the fallen. In the meantime, it seems isolated pockets of protesters continue to take to the streets but security forces are keeping a tight lid on events in Tehrn.
I will be updated this entry to the best of my ability with the latest aggregated news coming out of Iran. The Lede from the New York Times has been an incredible source of aggregated news and I will draw heavily on that. Twitter, however, has become the best source for information. I am currently monitoring the Twitter feeds (#iranelection). It’s hard to get completely reliable information as rumors are common and the Iranian government is spreading false information. Also the foreign press has been banned from covering the street protests. I will update this entry continuously so just refresh the page to get updates and all times are Pacific.
9:43pm There is no official word that Mousavi has called for a general strike on Tuesday. There is no formal call on his websites but the call is rapidly spreading around (at least on Twitter). This disorganization is really hurting efforts. We’ll see if any strikes materialize. Check back in with us tomorrow morning.
1:09pm Mousavi has called for a full national strike across Iran tomorrow.
1:05pm There are reports of continued clashes between protesters and security forces into the night. In Tehran people are continuing to chant “allahu akbhar” from their balconies but there are unconfirmed reports of Basij targeting people on their balconies.
11:38am The BBC reports the following about Neda from an interview with her fiance:
She had been sitting with her music teacher in a car, stuck in traffic, when she decided to get out because of the heat. “She got out of the car for just for a few minutes [and] that’s when she was shot dead,” said Kaspin Makan.
Mr Makan quoted eyewitnesses as saying she appeared to have been targeted deliberately by “paramilitaries in civilian clothing.”
He added that officials had prevented mourners holding a memorial service at a mosque on Monday. “The authorities are aware that everybody in Iran and throughout the whole world knows about her story,” he told the BBC. “They were afraid that lots of people could turn up.”
11:28am Hospital sources report that as many as 47 people have been killed by government forces.
11:14am Here is another video from today. You can see the strong security presence in Tehran.
11:02am This is apparently a video of a night rally in Tabriz from today.
10:58am A reliable twitter source is reporting that the cry of “Allahu Akbar” can be heard in the all the major cities in Iran.
10:55am Also unconfirmed: Mousavi has met with clerics in Qom this morning.
10:52am This is unconfirmed but apparently Mousavi has said that “Neda is not an angel-the angels aspire to Neda.”
10:48am Today there were at least two attempting rallies to mourn Neda’s death. Both were violently broken up. Many people were beaten and arrested. In both cases the security forces far outnumbered the protesters. Also security forces attacked nearby homes where people were seen filming events. This update comes from The Lede.
10:45am Reports from reliable sources on twitter are indicating that security forces have set up checkpoints throughout the city. Parliament and many of the ministry buildings are under heavy guard.
10:10am There are reports that the Iranian government is telling people that if they do not show up to work they will be immediately fired. Reports are also indicating that Mousavi has called for a national strike tomorrow. This is still inconfrimed. The strikes will be critical; if they fail to materialize then the opposition is going to face serious problems.
10:03am Last night I mentioned that the government hasn’t made any stupid mistakes. That is not entirely true since the Ayatollah’s Friday sermon was perhaps the greatest mistake Iran has made in a while and it will surely have serious reprecussions. The sermon was a serious miscalculation. Lets take an example from a game of poker. Khamenei is by far the big stack but the opposition still has a sizable stack of their own. Khamenei is dealed a mid pair. He pushes all in to attempt to scare the opposition out of the pot. He figures that his large chip count (i.e. his political stature, authority and capital) will be enough to push around any opposition. Meanwhile, the opposition has received a high pair. The opposition calls Khamenei and exposes his hand for what it really is: a weak pair. On Friday Khamenei overestimated his influence and now he has weakened his political capital. People are willing to openly oppose him and have exposed weaknesses in his leadership and authority. He will not have the same level of prominance as he has enjoyed over the last two decades.
With the opposition continuing to maintain a presence what should the government do to re-establish order (ordered based on severity).
1. Ahmadinejad needs to be censured. He is now a polarizing figure and is a liability in domestic affairs. His role needs to be minimized and carefully controlled. Domestic governing should be ceded to the clerics while Ahmadinejad represents Iran to the outside world (although even this could lead to problems).
2. All protesters who have been arrested should be released. There’s nothing wrong with arresting demonstraters since its done all the time in the United States, but they should be released immediately. Imprisoning people has little strategic value and only fuels anger toward the state.
3. A revote should be held, but I feel that such an option can’t work. There’s no trust in the government and the only result that will placate the opposition is a Mousavi victory. At this point even if a completely fair election was held and Ahmadinejad still won, the opposition would not go away. But this is no longer about an election. As much as Mousavi pushes for a new election, this is really an opposition movement against the direction that Iran has been moving in the last few years. A revote would have been possible before the Ayatollah’s Friday sermon but now it is out of the question.
4. The Basij will be a problem in the long term. These people are little better than street thugs and have now become the state’s instrument of repression and terror. Due to the nature of their organization they seem to be more independent than past secret police forces used by the Soviet bloc governments. The moderates in the Iranian government should fear them since they have shown no qualms about brutally suppressing their fellow citizens. It’s not too far fetched to think that someday they could turn against the Iranian state if the hardliners were to lose their influence. A close eye needs to be kept on the Basij. Potentially they might need to be dismantled and reintegrated with regular security forces.
5. Khamenei very well may have come close to bringing down the Iranian state. The government cannot afford a similar mistake again especially if the opposition is able to better organize itself. The clerics should seriously begin to question Khamenei’s political skills and whether a single Supreme Leader is best for Iran. Collective leadership might be the best option to ensure the security of the elite. The clerics need to seriously consider a reworking of the political structure that moderates the system.
Even if the hardliners are able to reassert control and generally suppress any outward visibilty of opposition, last week’s protests opened a wound in the Iranian system that cannot be ignored.
9:00am About 1,000 people attempted to gather to mourn Neda’s death but the gathering was quickly broken up by Basij. Reports indicate that the Basij are all over the city. Furthermore, it seems fear has trumped anger as many people are not leaving their homes. Mousavi is a hesitant leader. He has shown that he is willing to die for his cause but he doesn’t want to bring down the state. The opposition needs a “battlefield commander” who can organize day to day activities. Mousavi is doing a fine job of representing the opposition and inspiring people but without a daily presence organizing people the opposition cannot succeed.
8:09am Several hundred protesters gathered today but were quickly dispersed by police and Basij. The Revolutionary Guard has threatened to use force if protests continue.
Witnesses said helicopters hovered overhead as about 200 protesters gathered at Haft-e-Tir Square. But hundreds of anti-riot police quickly put an end to the demonstration and prevented any gathering, even small groups, at the scene.
The police are increasingly cracking down on any protesters and preventing large gatherings. The demonstraters are going to have to be resourceful and change tactics. You can read the whole article here.
I will be updated this entry to the best of my ability with the latest aggregated news coming out of Iran. The Lede from the New York Times has been an incredible source of aggregated news and I will draw heavily on that. Twitter, however, has become the best source for information. I am currently monitoring the Twitter feeds (#iranelection). It’s hard to get completely reliable information as rumors are common and the Iranian government is spreading false information. Also the foreign press has been banned from covering the street protests. I will update this entry continuously so just refresh the page to get updates and all times are Pacific.
11:08pm Today revealed two things about the government and the opposition. First, the government. As Robert Baer’s book, The Devil We Know, argues the Iranian government is extremely cunning, resourceful, and adaptive. After brutally killing several protesters yesterday, there have been no confirmed deaths today. Even reports of injuries overall seem less severe. They don’t want to create another Neda. That is not to say that the security forces have not been repressive. But, their actions have been less obvious. The Iranian government is smart and doesn’t commit absolutely stupid overreactions such as Saddam’s Iraq.
However, the opposition is still furious. I think you are going to see a disappearance of the daily mass rallies. Street clashes will continue but the 100,000 people plus rallies will be far less frequent. Instead, the opposition is preparing for a prolonged conflict. The opposition will now focus on general strikes. These strikes must succeed if the opposition hopes to maintain its challenge. Opposition movements in Poland and Czechoslovakia were successful because they were able to launch and maintain national strikes.
So what does the opposition need to do?
1. There needs to be better leadership. Currently all the demonstrations have been spontaneous. In order to be successful there needs to be a leadership structure. Either Mousavi needs to actively provide that leadership or people under him need to take up the leadership role.
2. The opposition must maintain a presence. Mass rallies would be ideal but its questionable how many consequative days these can last. The nightly rooftop calls of “Allahu Akbar” is important. Maintaining an active street presence gives ammunition for the government insiders such as Rafsanjani to urgently push for reforms. There needs to be a sense of urgency otherwise the clerics may be hesitant to push for change.
3. On a related point national strikes must occur in the important sectors such as transportation and oil.
4. The opposition must remain peaceful.
While actions on the steet are important, perhaps more intriguing events are going on behind closed doors in Qom. There is a clear power struggle going on between the hardliners and moderates/reformers. Ideas such as collective leadership are being floated. One thing is for sure, the Iranian state has changed from a week ago.
10:19pm The Huffington Post is reporting that Iranian state radio says 457 people were arrested on Saturday. Meanwhile, reporters continue to be arrested. Currently 14 reporters have been detained.
8:57pm The Autobus Workers Union of Iran on Friday declared its support for the protesters. They have set June 26th as a day of support for imprisoned Iranians. Already there seems to be sectors of the economy that are gearing up for a general strike. You can read the full text of the announcment here.
8:48pm Videos from yesterday keep surfacing. They are shouting “Death to Khamenei.”
8:17pm There is a report on iReport that the commander of the Revolutionary Guard for Tehran was arrested for refusing to carry out orders by Khamnenei. While this is unconfirmed there have been several reports that officers in the the Revolutionary Guard have been arrested.
8:14pm This video is from the same protest as the last posted video from a different angle. It seems that the event was today.
8:10pm Here is another video. I am not sure whether it is from yesterday or today.
6:40pm Al Arabiya reports that clerics a mulling changing the structure of the state. The debate is centering on whether the Supreme Leader should be replaced by a collective body of clerics. Also there is some discussion on whether to have Ahmadinejad step down form the presidency.
Iran’s religious clerks in Qom and members of the Assembly of Experts, headed by former President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, are mulling the formation of an alternative collective leadership to replace that of the supreme leader, sources in Qom told Al Arabiya on condition of anonymity.
A collective leadership structure would significantly moderate the actions of the Iranian state. It would be hard for radicals to exert their influence. This works both ways since it would probably also reduce the voice of more radical reformers. The Soviet Union went through a similar process. After the death of Stalin the Soviet state moved away from personal leadership to collective leadership. As a result the purges disappeared and the state became less ideological. However, collective leadership also partly led to its undoing since the structure of the Soviet state remained basically unchanged from the 1960s to the 1980s. Collective leadership would disappoint many protesters but it would fundamentally change the state and it would allow moderates to have a significant voice in the direction of the state.
5:26pm There are reports that Mousavi is planning to organize general strikes. These could be the face of the opposition now. In order to be effective the strikes will have to be in the major sectors of the economy such as the oil industry. If the oil sector were to strike then the opposition definitely has strong staying power and will not be confined to closed door meetings.
5:22pm Here is an update and link to an article posted by Iranian Press TV that says the Guardian Council found irregularities. Still this is not enough votes to make up the 11 million vote difference. However, it does refute statements made by Khamenei.
The spokesman, however, said that although the vote tally affected by such an irregularity could be over 3 million and the council could at the request of the candidates re-count the affected ballot boxes, “it has yet to be determined whether the possible change in the tally is decisive in the election results,”
4:33pm There is a report that the Guardian Council has found that there were at least 3 million excess votes over 50 cities. Waiting Confirmation.
1:58pm Here are some reports from Tehran. It appears that violence is continuing but many of the protests today did not materialize. It appears perhaps that the opposition is getting ready for a more protracted battle. However, videos from today did show continued street opposition. The opposition though isn’t going away.
12:46pm Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri (a foe of the hardliners and the most important cleric in Iran, has declared three days of mourning. He also released a statement condemning the violence. It will be interesting to see how the security forces react to the last line which says that suppression of the protesters is against Islamic principle and the worst sin. Here’s the full text:
In the name of God
We all come from Him and will go back to Him
The great and dignified Iranian nation:
With much sorrow I was informed that, during peaceful rallies to defend their lawful rights, the great Iranian people have been attacked [by the security forces], beaten, and bloodied, and killed. While expressing my condolences for this painful event and the losses, and feeling the pain of the nation, I declare Wednesday [June24], Thursday and Friday days of national mourning. I express my strongest support for the Muslim nation [of Iran] in their defense of their rights in the framework of the Constitution that recognizes republicanism [direct and freeelections, and respect for the votes] as one of the pillars of the [political] establishment, and declare that any action that would harm the republicanism of the system is not permitted [is against religion]. Every one of our religious brothers and sisters must help the nation in defending its lawful rights. Based on this principle, any resistance in this direction [against people who are defending their right], particularly use of violence, beating, and killing of [the people of] the nation is acting against the Islamic principle that the nation must decide its own fate and path and, therefore, I declare it to be religiously haraam [the worst sin].
Hossein Ali Montazeri
12:03pm Slight correction: CNN is showing a video clip of apparently a 7 year old boy who had been beaten by security forces
11:58am It is surprising how little information is coming to us considering the violence and anger of yesterday. The only reports are of scattered protests throughout Tehran. Many of these have been disrupted by Basij. However, so far there have been no confirmed deaths or serious injuries (beyond beatings). It’s very difficult to say what the situation on the ground is today.
10:40am Here’s a video from the streets today.
10:31am CNN is reporting that Iranian security forces have surrounded the headquarters of the State TV and Radio.
9:44am Cannot confirm if this video of protesters pushing back police is from today or yesterday.
9:04am Currently information has been hard to obtain. The word coming out of Iran is that the protests are continuing but are less violent than yesterday. Size is hard to determine. Meanwhile, Rafsanjani continues to work behind the scenes; however, five of his close family members have been arrested.
12:52am It’s after midday in Tehran and the reports have yet to really start trickling in. What will this new day bring? The people are angry but do they have critical mass. Where is the army and who will it side with? What role will the Revolutionary Guard play? One thing is for sure, the opposition cannot succeed without the neutrality or the support of the army. Reports on the army have been all over the place. Some rumors suggest that a certain number of officers in the army have defected or will soon defect. But last night there was rumors that tanks were moving into Tehran. The role of the army is critical. Meanwhile how long can the opposition sustain itself? Yesterday, government forces were well prepared and initially out manuevered the opposition. However, the opposition has learned. They will need to be resourceful and seek strength through symbols and vision. Neda, the young women seen killed in a pool of blood, has become the face of the opposition. Perhaps it’s fitting that her name means “voice.” The opposition has prepared for martyrdom and the government is as resolute as ever. This will not be over soon.
I will be updated this entry to the best of my ability with the latest aggregated news coming out of Iran. The Lede from the New York Times has been an incredible source of aggregated news and I will draw heavily on that. Twitter, however, has become the best source for information. I am currently monitoring the Twitter feeds (#iranelection). It’s hard to get completely reliable information as rumors are common and the Iranian government is spreading false information. Also the foreign press has been banned from covering the street protests. I will update this entry continuously so just refresh the page to get updates and all times are Pacific.
10:58pm There are a couple rumors going around. First, there are reports that the Basij are preventing access to the embassies. Second, there are reports that the Basij Terhan headquarters has been attacked and destroyed or badly damaged. This still remains speculative.
10:48pm I think this video best portrays the horrors and dangers facing Iranian citizens right now at night. According to CNN the translation of the voices says: “They are coming! They are coming! They are coming over the balconies.”
7:32pm This is police charge from earlier today
7:13pm This was from Saturday night
5:00pm For now it seems the rumors of tanks moving into Tehran could be disinformation. There has been no confirmation. A more reliable twitter account has reported that fresh Basij troops have been deployed into Tehran. We should expect a stronger security force showing tomorrow with or without tanks.
4:40pm There are rumors that tanks are are moving into Tehran. Earlier there was a report of a tank in one of the city’s squares. This has not been confirmed. The protests will not succeed with the military strongly opposed. The protesters need some support from the security apparatus.
4:04pm Here’s another video today. There are reports that the Basij are going door to door and dragging people from their homes.
3:34pm Here’s a map of Iran. Riots have been reported in Tehran, Esfahan, Tabriz, Mashad, Ahvaz. As you can tell by the map the riots have occurred in all corners of the country.
3:06pm The opposition today definitely was larger than “isolated pockets” as reported earlier.
3:02pm This has been floating around for awhile but apparently helicopters have been dropping a liquid. Some said it was boiling water while others said it was acid. Continuing reports suggest that it was in fact acid. Hospital sources report that there have been 19 deaths. Unofficial sources say the number is over 150.
12:37pm Multiple reports are confirming that the Basij are in the hospitals and taking down names. The opposition is urging protesters to go the the European embassies to seek medical attention.
12:25pm Here is a video from Iran’s second largest city, Isfahan. The protests are not confined to Tehran as there are reports of riots in Isfahan, Tabriz, Mashad, and Ahwaz.
12:09pm Reports from Iran are claiming that the cries of “Allahu Akbar” are louder and more furious tonight. Judging from the the reports and videos people are angry rather than fearful. The government’s violence has not been extreme enough to discourage people. This form of “restricted” violence will not keep the people off the streets; it will only make them angry. It’s only going to get worse.
12:00pm A video from the streets of Tehran. The end of the video shows footage of another dead protester.
11:54am Another update from Tehran Bureau
u aren’t here in iran to see what’s really happening to us… they are just hitting and killing our people freely…
11:47am Obama has condemned the Iranian government’s actions today with this press release:
The Iranian government must understand that the world is watching. We mourn each and every innocent life that is lost. We call on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people. The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights.
As I said in Cairo, suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. The Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government. If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect the dignity of its own people and govern through consent, not coercion.
Martin Luther King once said – “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” I believe that. The international community believes that. And right now, we are bearing witness to the Iranian peoples’ belief in that truth, and we will continue to bear witness.
11:45am The cries of Allahu Akbar continue tonight in Tehran and other cities in Iran.
11:29am There are many images and videos surfacing of bloodied and dying protesters. People are trying to focus on the videos of women who have been killed by gunfire as “poster images” of the protests. The same thing happened during the 1979 Revolution. WARNING Graphic:
9:50am This was released by the Twitter account linked to Mousavi’s campaign. Also these words were reportedly proclaimed by Mousavi on the streets.
I am prepared For martyrdom, go on strike if I am arrested
9:41am A long update provided by Tehran Bureau
The police was present in force. The units of elite riot police, well armed with guns, tear gas, batons and shields were present from Enghelab sq. to Azadi sq. They were assisted by Tehran Police ordinary units and Basijis. I saw at least one unit equipped by motor bikes and police command vehicles going up and down Azadi st. to coordinate movements. They blocked all access to Azadi street connecting Azadi sq. to Enghelab sq. by station units at every major and minor juncture.Then they cut off the street completely preventing people to gather and people already gathered to march. Choppers were giving cover to ground units and control their movements. Several thousands of people were scattered in streets and alleys and cannot enter Azadi St. to demonstrate. I saw two people who were beaten. Few people gathered because police was there from 3 PM preventing them from gathering. Several thousands were wandering between Azadi and Enghelab but there was no meeting point.
I think the government wants neither a massacre nor the marches to continue. Thus they organized their forces in order to prevent the assembly all together somehow without bloodshed. Today many demonstrators stepped in a well prepared situation and police took advantage of its best units and very well organized command and control system to checkmate them.
9:23am Apparently the European embassies are giving medical treatment to people on the street. The EU has taken a strong stance against the Iranian government. It will be interesting to see what relationship they will have with Iran in the near future.
9:05am Another video
9:02am This is reportedly from today
8:53am It’s interesting that there has been no confirmation of the shrine bombing. Iran Press TV has not shown any images of the bombing. It’s beginning to seem quite possible that the shrine was not bombed and was mere government propaganda.
8:46am People on the streets are shouting “death to Khameini”
8:39am There are multiple reports that Mousavi is among his supporters. This is still speculative.
8:15am Report from Tehran Bureau
Two reports coming from Tehran about helicopters pouring boiling water on protesters
7:56am Another update from Tehran Bureau
reports from Azadi square and that whole area say very brutal clashes taking place
7:52am This was reported by Tehran Bureau on twitter
pedestrians have filled up Qods street and the square
7:48am A video of protesters pushing back riot police
7:46 The security forces are out in force and are using tear gas and water cannons. They have apparently blocked access to the rallies. It is hard to gauge how many people are out on the streets but it does not seem to be the several hundred thousand that was hoped for. Estimates suggest that a several thousand have taken to the streets.
7:44am Here is a video from today
7:41am There is word that from Iranian Press TV that there has been a bombing at the Shrine of Khomeini. The government reports one death. If this is true then the opposition is taking a much stronger anti-State stance.
12:11am It’s 11:38am in Tehran. Twitter is quite. There are continued threats and intimidation to Mousavi, but the opposition seems to be determined to carry out today’s rally. Mousavi, Khatami, and Karroubi are expected to be at the rally. No mention of military units in the streets. Less than 4.5 hours left. How will the government respond?
I will be updated this entry to the best of my ability with the latest aggregated news coming out of Iran. The Lede from the New York Times has been an incredible source of aggregated news and I will draw heavily on that. Twitter, however, has become the best source for information. I am currently monitoring the Twitter feeds (#iranelection). It’s hard to get completely reliable information as rumors are common and the Iranian government is spreading false information. Also the foreign press has been banned from covering the street protests. I will update this entry continuously so just refresh the page to get updates and all times are Pacific.
8:33pm A video from yesterday. It’s now about 8:00am in Tehran and the beginning of what could be a pivotal moment. “Today’s” rally is scheduled at 4:00pm Tehran time which is 7.5 hours away. How will the government respond?
4:01pm This was posted by Tehran Bureau on twitter. Their information has been pretty reliable.
We hear in the [Iranian blogosphere] that the Supreme Leader has told Mousavi to keep quiet or he will be exiled,
Looks like the Iranian government knows that they can’t kill Mousavi. In fact exile could be the best option available to them. Exile can lead to two things: discrediting (like the Iraqi exiles) or strengthening (Khomenei afterall was in exile for the 1979 Revolution).
2:15pm A video from Friday night after the Ayatollah’s sermon
1:16pm Another twitter update from Iran:
Tonight in cities across iran, gun shots fired into air try to scare ppl,ppl just respond with louder chants of “God is great”
12:29pm This was posted on the Huffington Post about the creation of “anti-Basij militias” of young Mousavi supporters:
By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things … as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets ‘Basiji hunting’. Their resolve is no less than these thugs — they after hunting them down. They use their phones, their childhood friends, their intimate knowledge of their districts and neighbours to plan their attacks — they’re organised and they’re supported by their community so they have little fear. They create the havoc they’re after, ambush the thugs, use their Cocktail Molotovs, disperse and re-assemble elsewhere and then start again – and the door of every house is open to them as safe harbour — they’re community-connected. The Basiji’s are not.These are not the students in the dorms, they’re the street young — they know the ways better than most thugs – and these young, a surprising number of them girls, are becoming more agile in their ways as each night passes on.
11:38am This just posted by a twitter account linked to the Mousavi campaign:
Please join Mousavi, Khatami and Karoubi tomorrow at 4pm from Enghelab Sq. to Azadi Sq. in Tehran for a crucial green protest
11:04am The previous reports that the calls of “Allah Akbar” being not as loud was premature. Multiple sources report that the calls are perhaps louder than last night.
Strong voices from everywhere: Allaho Akbar, Death to the Dictator
10:36am On Twitter from reliable sources there are unconfirmed reports of the Revolutionary Guard mobilizing to secure Tehran. Also there are claims that the calls of “Allah Akbar” are not as strong tonight. Mousavi called on people to go onto their balconies betwenen 9pm and midnight. Currently it is about 10:00pm Tehran time so it is still early.
10:20am What does history tell us about the opposition’s chances? People are attempting to draw parallels to Tiananmen and the collapse of the Eastern Bloc but there are fundamental differences that give both hope and dispair. Tiananmen was doomed to fail because the Chinese State had strong support. The State offered security and economic growth. Research have suggested that usually people will not rebel against a State that provides those two factors. Many people are willing to trade their personal and political liberties for economic growth and a stable society especially after periods of turmoil as was the case of the Cultural Revolution (The same can be said for Russia with people strongly supporting Putin after the disarray of the Yeltsin years). The Iranian government has not provided economic growth. Inflation is high and the economy is mainly proped up on oil revnues. It’s global position has been extremely tarnished by the Amadinejad years, and many Iranians want a stable relationship with the West to promote trade and economic growth. The current Iranian government does not offer many tangible benefits which is extremely valuable to the opposition.
The collapse of the Eastern Bloc offers more sobering prospects for Iran. Each country was proped up by the Sovet Union . The national governments had little popular legitimacy but their positions were secured by Moscow and the Brezhnev Doctrine. The collapse of the local economies only furthered undermined legitimacy. When Gorbachev reversered the Brezhnev Doctrine the national governments were suddenly at the mercy of the people. With little legitimacy and no further support from their patron, they were easily toppled by sustained protest from the opposition. In Poland the Communist party was voted out of office and the Communists accepted it. In Czechoslovakia a strong unified opposition movement was able to negotiate with the Communist Party a new government. In Hungary, the Communist Party essentially gave up and reformed itself from within. East Germany was overwhelmed. Only Romania strongly resisted change where only a far more violent revolution was required. The situation in Iran is different. While the government has lost legitimacy over the economy, it is no where near as weak as the Eastern Bloc countries since it has been able to self-sustain itself for decades. More importantly, the Iranian government is firmly determined to resist the opposition movement whereas in Eastern Europe the governments essentially just gave up in most cases (some times it was a matter of days and in other cases it was a matter of weeks).
What is happening in Iran might be more similar to Hungary 1956, Czechoslovkia 1968 (the Prague Spring), or Poland 1981. In each of those cases the opposition was initially strong and in some cases had popular support, but it faced strong resistence from the government. The oppositions in Hungary and Czechoslovkia were crushed by Soviet tanks and the Poland 1981 protests were defeat by Polish security forces and martial law. The diffculty in Iran right now is to actively gauge how much popular support the opposition enjoys. We’ve seen the images of immense rallies across the country but is it enough? Tomorrow will provide a better indicator on the near future. How strong will the opposition be tomorrow? Will they more directly challenge the government? What will the government’s response be?
If the situation in Iran runs a similar course to the Eastern Bloc uprisings of 1956, 1968, and 1981 then the Iranian government should best remember that it is living on borrowed time. Some of the myths shrouding the Ayatollah are being shattered. Today’s protests are giving valuable experience to tomorrow’s opposition leaders. They are learning what works and what they can achieve. Eastern Europe offers another lesson. The early uprisings did not seek to overthrow the Marxist state. Instead they wanted to reform the state with a more liberal interpretation of Socialism (Socialism with a human face). The next round of protests (1989) sought the completely overthrow of the Communist state. Today the opposition may be hesitant to openly challenge the Ayatollah and the organization of the Iranian state, but next time around the opposition might be far more radical. Also the Iranian government should take lessons from Hungary. They cannot eliminate Mousavi lest they turn him into a martyr. In the aftermath of the Hungarian Revolution the reformist Prime Minister during the revolution, Imre Nagy, was executed by the Soviets. Thirty years later the reburial of his body become a source of nationalism and opposition that brought the end of Communism in Hungary in 1989. The Ayatollah is not immune from the course of history.
9:15am As expected the Ayatollah did not give into demands by the opposition. This puts the opposition in a difficult position. Now the only way to achieve their demands is to oppose the system. It’s one thing to challenge Ahmadinejad but it’s quite another thing to challenge the Ayatollah. Furthermore, simply calling for a new vote is now out of the question. Either the opposition has to accept the outcome or call to action an overthrow of the Ayatollah. However, the Ayatollah still enjoys mass support and the military is solidly behind the Iranian government. Rumors are suggesting that the Iranian security forces will have far less restraint in the upcoming days. If the opposition can come out in force tomorrow, the Ayatollah should be very afraid.
9:04 Before tens of thousands of supporters the Ayatollah offered no concessions to the opposition. He urged all candidates to use legal means to express their grievances and demanded an end to the street protests. Individuals from the opposition have said they will keep up the protest. There are no rallies today, but the opposition is planning another big rally tomorrow.
I will be updated this entry to the best of my ability with the latest aggregated news coming out of Iran. The Lede from the New York Times has been an incredible source of aggregated news and I will draw heavily on that. Twitter, however, has become the best source for information. I am currently monitoring the Twitter feeds (#iranelection). It’s hard to get completely reliable information as rumors are common and the Iranian government is spreading false information. Also the foreign press has been banned from covering the street protests. I will update this entry continuously so just refresh the page to get updates and all times are Pacific.
4:14 Many have perhaps noticed the lack of pro-Ahmadinejad supporters and rallies. They do exist, as reported by CNN, but no one is twittering about them or posting pictures. Nor has the Iranian state media focused on these rallies. This is a slight bias in the news to due the nature of the sources. Pro-Amadinejad rallies do exist but they are far far smaller than those for the opposition.
4:10 There are more claims of unrest among the army and even the Revolutionary Guard. Multiple people on twitter are now reporting and confirming this.
4:05 There are rumors on twitter that some generals will back Rafsanjani. For the last few days there have been claims that some in the military have defected, but there was no confirmation. For now these claims are just rumors and extremely speculative. In the past the Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian Army have been extremely loyal to the State and the Ayatollah.
3:56 A picture to further dispell the claim that the protesters are mainly college age.
3:20 Iran’s Press TV reports that the Ayatollah will be leading tomorrow’s prayers at Tehran University.
The massive turnout of the Iranian nation in the Friday prayers congregation will manifest the solidarity and unity among Iranians
This explains why Mousavi has called off the rally at Friday’s prayers. Having his supporters attend the prayers would lend support to the government. There should be a large amount of security at the prayers which is another reason to keep away any protest rally. More rallies are planned tomorrow, although it is unclear whether the rally and the prayers will be simultaneous. Tomorrow could be a real test to see how many people will come out for the Ayatollah. By rejecting the government’s call for a show of unity, Mousavi and his supporters are beginning to not only reject the government but the Ayatollah too. So far the rallies have lacked any strong unified effort to question the fundamentals of the Iranian system (read: the Ayatollah and the clerics).
2:50 Even Ahmadinejad is moving away from his earlier rhetoric. He is attempting to clarify that his earlier statements about the protesters as “weeds” and soccor hooligans” were directed at the riorters not the peaceful protesters.
2:44 This is confirmed by a source connected to the Mousavi campaign: “supporters are asked not to attend Friday’s prayers being delivered by the Ayatollah.” Early a rally was planned at the prayer. Given the lack of information is difficult to tell what this means. There were fears that there would be a strong military presence and crackdown tomorrow if there was a rally. However, since Mousavi is telling his supports to not only protest but to not even attend, this in itself could a form of protest and a sub to the Ayatollah. We’ll see how things play out. But considering that his supporters came out on Tuesday in force after Mousavi urged people not to protest, it seems likely that there will be opposition at the prayer.
2:15 Here’s a video of Mousavi addressing his supporters at today’s rally:
2:09 The New York Times is reporting that today’s rally was most likely larger than Monday’s. The Mayor of Tehran said 3 million people came out on Monday.
1:07 Tehran Bureau reports from reliable sources that several Revolutionary Guard Commanders have been arrested. It’s really impossible to tell what this means. As far as we can tell these commanders could have been arrested for resisting orders or it is an attempt to “purge” the Revolutionary Guard to defuse the protests.
12:53 More images from today. These images were released by Mousavi’s campaign.
9:24 Some reports put the turnout of today’s rally at 1 million. Even if this this not true, today’s rally seems to be the largest so far. Even more people are at mosques throughout the country.
9:14 Here is a new video of today’s rally from AlJazeera.
9:01 Iran’s Press TV is reporting that hundreds of thousands of people have come out to today’s rally.
8:08 Moussavi said this while addressing the crowd:
This government is not what Imam Khomeini wanted for Iran
8:03 Moussavi has called for a candlelight vigil tonight.
7:57 Here is a video from today’s rally. Initial estimates put the turnout in the thousands. But, judging from the videos released that seems conservative.
7:46 The Guardian Council has called for dialogue with the opposition. The timing of the announcement suggests that it is merely an attempt by the government to buy time. In any event, it is an acknowledgement that the opposition has grievances.
